NBA · 2018-19 to 2025-26 · PCA skill space

What shape is your roster?

Every player-season is a point in a learned skill space. Weight each point by minutes and a roster becomes a shape: lobes where roles cluster, bulges where players duplicate each other, holes where the league spends minutes and this team does not.

+0.48
peak density vs redundancy
+0.25
lobe count vs net rating
0.54
shape change vs roster turnover
746
team-seasons in the wins backtest

Team explorer

Pick a 2025-26 roster, then switch between views of the same shape. 3D views are interactive: drag to rotate, scroll to zoom.

The whole league at once

All 30 shapes side by side, and the skill space they live in.

Trades and swaps

How a shape deforms when the roster changes. Real transactions on the left half, single-player counterfactuals on the right.

What the shape can and cannot tell you

Each shape statistic correlated against independently computed roster structure metrics, 210 team-seasons.

Shape encodingRedundancyComplementarityFragilityNet rating
Peak density+0.48-0.20-0.06-0.23
Compactness+0.38-0.27-0.16-0.27
Lobe count-0.32+0.10+0.14+0.25
Volume-0.26+0.11-0.04+0.02
Largest-lobe share+0.22-0.19-0.16-0.27

Redundancy reads well as peak density. Diversity reads as lobes, and lobes are the only encoding that likes good teams: a tidy sphere is a worse team. Complementarity is a property of pairs, which a smooth density throws away. Fragility did not survive measurement.

Complementarity is real but small: about 0.45 points per 100 possessions per pair, against 3.07 for individual player value and roughly 17 points per 100 of noise in a single lineup's season. These pictures make fit look like the main story because fit is all they draw. Talent is the main story.